The S&P 500 is nearing its All-time high, while the Nasdaq 100 has updated its highest value. CPI and retail sales are key to short-term adjustments | Hiyachiro Okamoto's Path to Mastering U.S. Stocks | Manekuri - Monex Securities' investment information and media useful for money.

The US stock market is rising strongly amid uncertainties

Last week (the week of August 4), the U.S. stock market showed a strong rise despite the uncertainty factors such as President Trump's tariff remarks and changes in the personnel of the Federal Reserve (FRB). The S&P 500 rose by 2.43% for the week, closing at 6,389.45. It was just 0.32 points away from the all-time high of 6,389.77 (based on closing price). The Nasdaq 100 also rose by 3.73%, updating its all-time high based on the closing price last Friday (August 8).

The market on Monday (August 11) at the beginning of the week showed a slight adjustment ahead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement scheduled for the following day. The S&P 500 closed down 0.25%, and the Nasdaq 100 also finished trading down 0.36% after reaching a new intraday high.

The Magnificent 7 Stocks Driving the Market, Apple [AAPL] Surges

The Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Index rose by 5.42% last week, driven by concentrated buying in large tech stocks.

Apple's CEO Tim Cook announced plans for additional investments aimed at strengthening manufacturing capabilities in the U.S. during a visit to the White House. The plan includes an additional investment of $100 billion on top of existing investment plans, bringing the total U.S. investment to $600 billion over the next four years. This includes an AI server factory in Texas, the world's largest glass production line for smartphones in Kentucky, and a rare earth recycling facility in California.

Additionally, a plan was presented to complete the semiconductor supply chain within the United States, symbolizing a significant move towards domestic manufacturing return. In response to this announcement, Apple's stock price, which had been underperforming among the Magnificent 7 stocks, surged after the announcement, rising by 13.3% over the week.

Trump and Putin's Alaska meeting influences market sentiment

On the other hand, President Trump has expressed the possibility of imposing tariffs of up to 100% on semiconductors imported into the United States, causing temporary caution in the market. However, in response to the announcement that tech companies declaring domestic production would be exempt from tariff measures, this has become a significant victory for companies like NVIDIA [NVDA] that were concerned about new trade issues. NVIDIA's stock price reached an all-time high on Friday.

From a geopolitical perspective, President Trump announced that he would meet with Russian President Putin in Alaska on August 15, U.S. time. His indication of willingness to engage in ceasefire negotiations regarding the situation in Ukraine has strengthened the perception of reduced geopolitical risks and contributed to the rise in the market.

This week's focus (week of August 11) is on the inflation data for August 12.

This week (the week of August 11), the biggest events to watch are the Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement on Tuesday (August 12) and the Retail Sales announcement on Friday (August 15). The core CPI is expected to rise by about +3.0% year-on-year, and the overall CPI is also anticipated to accelerate slightly. Retail sales are forecasted to increase by +0.6% month-on-month, which will determine whether the optimism in the S&P 500 retail sector, which rose 3.83% this week, is justified. Conversely, if the results fall short of expectations, concerns about consumer spending may arise.

Corporate earnings will include Applied Materials [AMAT] and attention will be focused on the demand for AI-related semiconductor equipment and the recovery of consumer spending in China. Tariff issues remain a risk factor, and trade negotiations and policy statements between the US and China, as well as between the US and India, could increase short-term volatility.

Depending on the outcome of the meeting between President Trump and President Putin, energy and defense-related stocks are expected to react immediately. A risk-on environment is anticipated for the overall U.S. stock market.

Moreover, the current ongoing large-scale tech-led rise is a market cycle that has been repeated in the past, and it is believed that there is a high probability that the upward trend will continue at this point in time. However, depending on the results of the CPI and retail sales, it cannot be denied that a temporary adjustment phase may occur.