The highly anticipated Celestia ecosystem is about to welcome a major event. Starting from August 16 and continuing until November 14, 43.45 million TIA Tokens held by the Celestia Foundation will enter the rolling unlock phase. This move has sparked widespread attention and discussion in the crypto world.

In July of this year, the Celestia Foundation acquired this batch of TIA Tokens for $62.5 million, and has already gained over 30% in floating profits. This large-scale unlocking event not only affects TIA itself but may also have far-reaching implications for the entire crypto assets market, particularly Ethereum (ETH).

Although the rolling unlock does not mean immediate large-scale selling pressure, there are still some potential risks in the market. New investors may choose to cash out in the short term, and as a leading project in the modular track, TIA's volatility may affect related projects like Fuel, and even trigger risk aversion among smaller tokens.

However, in the long run, this operation by the Celestia Foundation may be a strategic layout. By centralizing the token circulation, it paves the way for the long-term development of the TIA ecosystem, which is similar to the strategy of institutional investors locking up Bitcoin. It may cause market fluctuations in the short term, but in the long run, it could become an opportunity for value reassessment.

It is worth noting that modular public chain projects are not direct competitors to Ethereum, but rather extensions of its ecosystem. Many modular projects rely on Ethereum as a settlement layer, providing services for Rollup scaling solutions. On the surface, these projects seem to be diverting funds, but in reality, they reinforce the 'modular narrative' and may actually solidify Ethereum's position within the ecosystem.

The key game point in the market is: if the TIA price drops significantly, Ethereum, with its 'spot ETF expectations' and large market capitalization, may become the preferred choice for capital seeking refuge. However, if funds continue to flow out of the crypto market, Ethereum will also face pressure in the short term.

Investors should closely follow two key signals to predict the trend of Ethereum: first, the on-chain activity of TIA, particularly whether new addresses choose to lock up or cash out; second, the capital flow of Ethereum, especially whether it can attract funds against the trend when small Tokens experience a sharp decline. These indicators can be obtained by tracking data platforms such as Nansen.

As the total market value of Crypto Assets reaches a new high and the price of Bitcoin returns to the $120,000 mark, the entire market is at a critical moment. The unlocking event of TIA will undoubtedly become one of the important factors influencing the market direction in the short term.